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To what extent can drones change the shape of future wars?

  2019-11-13

introduce:On September 14, Saudi oil facilities were hit hard by large-scale attacks on drones and cruise missiles. After the attack, Yemeni Hussein announced that it was responsible for the first time, but the United States and Saudi Arabia insisted that Iran was

On September 14, Saudi oil facilities were hit hard by large-scale attacks on drones and cruise missiles. After the attack, Yemeni Hussein announced that it was responsible for the first time, but the United States and Saudi Arabia insisted that Iran was the initiator, and Iran firmly denied that the situation in the Gulf region was even more tense. Although the black smoke that has been attacked over the oil facilities has been dispersed, the aftermath of this attack is still spreading, causing people from all walks of life to think.

Asymmetric warfare

The Saudi Arabian Interior Ministry issued a statement on September 14 that several drones attacked two oil facilities of the Saudi National Oil Company (Aramco) and caused a fire. It was confirmed afterwards that 14 oil storage/gas tanks and three pumping stations were hit in the Abu Geiger refinery; two oil wells were hit in the Hurais oil field, and a Quds-1 cruise was also found in the desert of Saudi Arabia. Missile wreckage (this missile is used by Hussein to use Iran to transfer technology research and development). On the 18th, Saudi Arabia displayed the cruising missiles and drones related to the attack. According to statistics, a total of 18 drones and 7 cruise missiles participated in the attack. Although Hussein has repeatedly claimed the attack and listed the "evidence", Mesa still targets Iran, including: based on video and bomb hole analysis on the bombed facilities, the attack came from the north. The southern part of the country where non-Yemen is located; it is difficult to achieve such a long-distance "acupoint" of more than 1,000 kilometers by the strength of Hussein’s armed forces. It can only be done by Iran; the number of drones involved in the attack announced by Hussein’s armed forces (10) There are discrepancies with the actual, and so on. At present, due to the multiple words of each party, it is difficult to answer the question about the identity of the attacker in a short period of time.

It is yet to be investigated further who launched the attack, but the attack itself has made the asymmetric war "splend the face" of the international community. "Symmetrical warfare" is usually understood as a typical armed conflict between countries with comparable military power, especially the military forces of comparable strength in war. "Asymmetric warfare" means that there is a significant disparity in the military strength or subjective aspects of the opposing sides. This "asymmetry" involves many aspects, including weapons and equipment, military scale, tactical tactics, etc., which can run through all the conflicts. The overall performance is Small to big, less to more, backward to advanced.

After the end of the Cold War, the possibility of a symmetrical war between big powers fell sharply. However, the regional, ethnic, and religious contradictions that were previously suppressed began to ferment, resulting in asymmetric wars that “flowered” around the world. Among them, the armed conflict between state and non-government armed organizations is a typical representative of "asymmetric warfare". Because non-government armed organizations tend to be inferior to the government in overall strength, in order to take the initiative, they must "swords and slant". For example, in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Palestinian militant groups such as "Hamas" are unable to fight against Israeli artillery. They often use rockets to attack Israeli cities. Some Palestinians will also fly kites with burning bottles or explosives. Or balloons arson on farms and public green areas in the country. The low cost of these weapons has caused the Israeli side to have a headache. They have to resort to huge sums of money (the "iron shovel" system that intercepts the Palestinian rockets by the Israeli army costs hundreds of thousands of dollars per missile), and it is laborious and labor-intensive. In the war on terrorism, although the participating countries are strong, they are sometimes at a disadvantage of "asymmetry." For example, in the terrorist attacks that occurred in Europe in the past, terrorists mixed tens of thousands of refugee groups on an individual basis, and used large trucks to collide with pedestrians in the local area to cause mass casualties.

The attack on the Saudi oil facility also produced a small and powerful effect. The attacked Bugueg oil processing plant is the world's largest crude oil purification plant, and the Hurayi oilfield is the second largest oil field in Saudi Arabia. The daily output accounts for about 1% of the world's total, so the attack caused Saudi oil production in a short period of time. Serious impact. Saudi Energy Minister Abdul Aziz Ben Salman issued a statement on September 15 that Saudi Arabia shut down half of its oil production, which also led to a suspension of natural gas production, reducing the supply of ethane and LNG by 50%. International crude oil prices have soared so much that the Trump administration has stated that it is ready to use the US "strategic oil reserves" when necessary. Compared with Saudi Arabia’s huge losses, the price paid by the attackers is negligible. In addition, Saudi Arabia’s high-end air defense system, which was previously purchased from the United States, did nothing in this attack (Saudi Arabia deployed 88 “Patriots” on its northern border. Of the missile launchers, 52 are the latest PAC-3 versions, and three more destroyers equipped with SM-2 missiles are on duty in the Persian Gulf, which highlights the advantages of asymmetric warfare.

It is not difficult to imagine that the huge "demonstration" effect of this attack will stimulate other relative weaknesses in conflicts or disputes to be more inclined to develop asymmetric combat forces, and similar attacks may be staged again in other parts of the world.

It is worth noting that some big countries in the current situation also pay great attention to the asymmetric war mode. Under the pressure of sanctions in the West, Russia is still in a downturn and cannot compete with the United States and other countries in conventional military power. It also uses asymmetric means, such as vigorously developing its own nuclear power, creating various "killer" weapons and enhancing nuclear deterrence. To the nuclear system often. In the case that the naval power is far worse than that of the United States, Russia adopts new ideas. Its navy will receive as many as 180 new ships by 2027, but it is mainly based on small and medium-sized surface ships (Russian "2018-2027 National Arms Plan" ). Russian Defense Minister Shayugu said, "It is necessary to recognize the limitations of the current Russian naval capabilities and focus on the development of various new types of frigates. In the short term, such multi-purpose frigates equipped with high-precision long-range weapons should become the main battleships." In September this year, Shoygu said more clearly, "We don't need an aircraft carrier, we need weapons that can sink them."

Drones are more popular

UAVs are popular at present, and the official and private sectors are eagerly awaiting. Various UAV platforms have sprung up. The theory of using UAVs for war is also the focus of research. Among them, “bee colony” is the most famous. According to the research, with the continuous development of 3D printing technology, the cost of lightweight and miniaturized drones will be lower, and all parties can produce in large quantities, combined with artificial intelligence and other technologies, making dozens or even hundreds of thousands. Large-scale drone cluster operations have become a reality. In combat, the drone cluster has greater stability and will not affect the entire battle due to single or partial individual failure or destruction. At the same time, a UAV cluster formation can be composed of different functions of UAVs, which make it have multiple capabilities such as reconnaissance and surveillance, electronic interference, strike and evaluation, and the battlefield is highly applicable. In addition, a large number of cheap drone systems can also be used to consume each other's high-value attack weapons, so that the enemy has to spend dozens of times or even hundreds of times to defend.

There is a trend that the drone war will become an important part of the future war, and this incident of Saudi oil facilities has strengthened this trend. It is worth noting that, due to “ignorance” by the United States and Saudi Arabia, the Houthi armed forces listed a lot of “evidence” at the press conference held on September 19 and announced some details about the attack. Its spokesman, Ye Haiya, said that the attack used three types of drones, of which Samad-3 is a large drone that can fly 1,500 to 1,700 kilometers. Another unknown type of drone is a jet. Large long-endurance drone that can carry four precision-guided bombs with cluster warheads to monitor and strike targets from multiple angles. As for the details of the operation, Ye Haiya said that due to the different speeds and voyages of the aircraft, the three drones took off from different locations in Yemen, one of them with electronic pressing equipment, under the protection of this drone, Hussein The drone penetrated from several locations and reached the target of Saudi Arabia. After the attack was completed, the Houthi armed unmanned reconnaissance aircraft carried out a damage assessment of the target. It is not difficult to see that the details depicted by Hussein’s armed forces are in good agreement with the future drone “bee colony”.

When the "low-profile" drones became famous in the Middle East, the "high-end version" became a news headline. On September 16th, the Russian "News" website published an article entitled "Don't be underestimated: the drone equipped with cruise missiles - "hunter" stealth unmanned aircraft or a complete replacement of some fighters," pointed out: The Russian Ministry of Defense decided to build a new "hunter" stealth unmanned attack aircraft unit in the Western Military Region and the Southern Military Region in 2024. "Hunter" is the first heavy-duty long-endurance UAV in Russia. It adopts a flying wing configuration and the fuselage is made of composite material. It has the same invisible coating as the Su-57. The whole machine weighs about 20 tons. The wingspan is about 20 meters, the top speed is about 1000 kilometers, the combat radius is expected to be more than 4,000 kilometers, and it can carry about two tons of ammunition. On September 23, Sergei Hochlov, president of the Russian Academy of Aeronautical Systems Science, said in an interview that Russia is carrying out the development of the sixth-generation fighter. "The biggest difference between this machine and the fifth-generation machine lies in the six generations. The machine is mainly unmanned."

On September 19th, the Boeing Company's MQ-25 "Salmon" ship-borne unmanned refueling aircraft made its first test flight at the test airport in St. Louis, Central America. The MQ-25 "Stingray" is the next generation US Navy carrier unmanned refueling aircraft. It is also the first carrier-based drone on the US aircraft carrier. Its "body type is similar to the "Super Hornet" carrier aircraft, which can be four to Six aircraft provide 15,000 pounds (6,800 kilograms) of fuel and are invisible.

Competition among the four major countries needs to adhere to the "main channel"

It can be said that the attack on Saudi Arabia will become a "catalyst" for drone technology, prompting big countries, small countries and local forces to further follow the trend. However, there is a view that since forces such as Iran or Hussein, with limited resources and expertise, can use the cheap weapons to cause serious damage to Saudi Arabia, which is theoretically well-equipped and protected by the United States, then the future. The global warfare pattern will have a big turn, and those expensive weapons will be labeled as “flashy”. I am cautious about this view.

As far as this attack is concerned, although there are successes, there are no accidental factors. On the one hand, the tactical literacy of the Saudi army has long been criticized. It has not suffered such a large-scale attack in the past, so it will inevitably be ridiculous and inadequately prepared for action. According to analysis, Saudi Arabia's national air defense early warning system is relatively perfect in the north and east, but the air defense protection for the Abu Geiger refinery exists only in the direction of Daman facing Iran, while there is a clear gap in the north. On the other hand, the early warning radar's poor search ability for low-altitude targets is a common problem. In the absence of an AWACS launch, it is difficult to find low-altitude or ultra-low-altitude targets in advance. (There are also domestic experts who point out that the United States sells to Saudi Arabia. The "Patriot" system may have been discounted in performance), so it was only exploited by the drone group.

If the target is an army that maintains a high level of alert and has the appropriate counter-measures, the results can be quite different. Take the Russian military as an example. According to data released by the Russian Defense Ministry on September 27, within two years, the Russian army destroyed nearly 120 drones used by terrorists to attack the Russian al-Hamim air base in Syria. In anti-UAV operations, the more famous one occurred on January 6, 2018. In the early hours of the morning, the Russian air defense system in Syria found 13 small air targets approaching Russian military facilities, 10 of which were flying near Hemmim Air base and three of them flying near the Tartus Port supply station. The attack ended in all failures. During the operation, the Russian military radio technology unit successfully controlled six UAVs, three of them landed on the ground outside the base, the other three crashed during the landing, and the remaining seven were all operated by the Serie A S-type air defense missile system. shoot down.

Spears and shields were originally born, and the large-scale application of drones also allowed anti-UAV technology to follow the trend of “waterborne ships”. On September 23, the Pentagon informed Congress that it had purchased a phase gun (PHASER) system, a microwave weapon that can use energy pulses to shoot down enemy drones. Suitable for overseas deployment assessments, PHASER will also be the first directed defensive weapon ever installed. The 2019 version of the "Defense White Paper" released by Japan at the end of September clearly stated that due to the advancement of advanced technologies such as drones and artificial intelligence (AI) in neighboring countries, it may become a game changer that will change the future fighting situation. Japan will promote research to intercept. A high-power radar system with a large number of drones. The "Minimum of 2020 to 2024" issued by the Korean Ministry of National Defense also pointed out that the Korean Army will develop advanced weapons including electromagnetic pulse bombs. It is estimated that Saudi Arabia will purchase more equipment for counterfeit drones after eating this loss. After the attack, the United States is also helping Saudi Arabia to "reinforce the dead." The Pentagon said on September 26 that it plans to dispatch four "sentinel" radar systems, a group of "Patriot" air defense missile systems and about 200 logisticians to Saudi Arabia to strengthen local defense. It is reported that the "Sentinel" radar is a small mobile deployment radar with a detection range of 40 kilometers, mainly used for low-altitude blinding.

From the general trend, the asymmetric warfare model will indeed have more tenacious vitality in the future, but in the end, it is only a matter of expediency, and it is a helpless choice for the weaker side. The symmetric game in the "high-precision" field will still be the future military competition. Especially the mainstream of military competition among big powers. For example, in the early days of the founding of the People's Republic of China, in view of the fact that its own strength was weak, the choice of "air, submarine, and fast" was chosen as the main direction in the development of the navy. With the strengthening of national power in recent years, large and medium-sized warships in China have been launched, like aircraft carriers and amphibians. The "standard" of large navies such as attack ships has also begun to appear in the sequence of the Chinese navy, not to mention "sci-fi-level" equipment such as 歼20, electromagnetic guns, and hypersonic missiles. The military parade of the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, the Chinese People's Liberation Army has demonstrated a large number of advanced drones such as the Attack -11 and the No Detective-8, and also announced the first four information warfare phalanxes, complex electronic The antennas of war equipment and long-distance communication equipment highlight the importance and deep foundation of the PLA in the field of electromagnetic rights under the conditions of information warfare. All of these indicate that China is also attacking and defending both in the field of drones, and both hands must be hard.

The author believes that although the case of Saudi attack has been widely concerned because of "weak system", "strong and strong" is still the "main channel" of big country competition, which should not be neglected.

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